The Mississippi River remains what it always was – a kind of huge rope, no matter with what knots and frayings, tying the United States together. It is the Nile of the Western Hemisphere – John Gunther
In what has been called a "slow-moving disaster," the high point, or crest, of the Mississippi River is making its way down the center of the United States, leaving destruction and debris in its wake.
The rising floodwaters have prompted President Obama to declare a state of emergency in Mississippi, Tennessee and Louisiana. As the crest continues moves south, the Mississippi Delta region braces for the biggest flood in nearly a century.
The crest of the river passed Vicksburg, Miss., earlier this week and will arrive in Baton Rouge, La., on May 23 and New Orleans on May 24. Once the crest passes, however, the danger is not yet over. Record flood levels will continue for 10 days after the crest has passed.
A newly published report by Dr. Michael Hicks, director of Ball State University's Center for Business and Economic Research, and Dr. Mark Burton, director of transportation economics at the University of Tennessee's Center for Transportation Research, estimates that up and down the Mississippi – from Minnesota to New Orleans – damage costs will reach between $7 billion and $9 billion.
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The damage, however, is not limited to the destruction of homes and businesses that cling to the riverbanks. Even greater damage was done to crops, public infrastructure and utilities, emergency response and telecommunications.
The economic system of the United States has suffered a body blow that is being felt all across the nation.
The River has made the United States a world power. But when the Mississippi is shut to traffic, commodities used to feed factories cannot come in, and agricultural goods can't get out. Alternative methods of transportation are available but much more expensive. For example, it is cheaper to move goods from Baton Rouge, La., to Philadelphia by water than it is from Pittsburg, Pa., to Philadelphia by rail.
During World War II, the Germans understood well the economic impact of the mighty Mississippi. A U-Boat campaign was conducted at the mouth of the river in an attempt to cripple the war-making ability of the United States … and nearly succeeded. Hurricane Katrina brought back the importance of the Mississippi River when nature shut down New Orleans. The front door to America's Heartland was closed.
The flood of 2011 has inflicted the same type of damage to the United States as Katrina did, but to a lesser extent. As a result of the flood, it is estimated:
- Crop losses in the Mississippi River Basin will reach $2 to $3 billion. The crop failures will put upward pressure on world food prices that have already risen 36 percent in the past year.
- Workers have been laid off when businesses and factories flooded, amounting to $18 million a month in lost payroll.
- In Mississippi, where riverboat gambling is legal, 17 of the state's 19 casinos have closed due to flooding. The economic impact has been $87 million in losses in addition to the property damage.
- Railroads along the river have been closed. This has moved a large amount of hazardous chemical traffic to trucks, increasing the chance of accidents. The risky truck transport will continue after the river subsides since, in some sections, the rail bed liner was undermined by the water and in other places the track was removed to build temporary levees to hold back the river. Repairing the track is expensive. The average cost of repairing damaged track is $300,000 per mile.
- Closing the river will also stop oil going to the refineries on the industrial corridor between New Orleans and Baton Rouge. It will also stop much of the gasoline and fuel oil deliveries to consumers. Part of the increase at the gas pump in recent weeks has been due to concerns about gasoline availability.
The decrease in commerce and increased unemployment carries lingering effects on local economies. The loss of revenue, for example, also hits governments, many of which will face cutting services and laying off policemen, firemen and teachers.
Some experts on the river economy believe that every dollar spent on payroll means at least five dollars in the local economy as the money turns over. Using that calculation, the loss to the local economy of a casino town like Tunica, Miss., would be approximately $90 million per month.
What frustrates many people involved in the rescue and recovery efforts is the fact that bad policy decisions made this disaster worse than it needed to be. Flood zone maps are out of date, resulting in bad zoning and disaster planning decisions.
Also, all along the Mississippi River Basin, there has been commercial and residential development with little thought of the effects of increasing rain runoff. Within the Corps of Engineers there is a saying that the water from every parking lot in the Midwest passes by New Orleans.
The largest fear concerning the flood has thankfully not materialized … yet. During other major floods, the Mississippi River changed course. In April 1876, the Mississippi River changed course and left the river port of Vicksburg, Miss., with no river. The economic effect on the city was devastating. A port city that is landlocked will die. The U.S. Corps of Engineers actually diverted the Yazoo River into the old Mississippi River bed and reopened the Port of Vicksburg, opening the city to commerce again.
If such an event were to happen again, if the Mississippi were to take another path to the Gulf of Mexico, it would essentially end New Orleans' existence as a key part of American transportation and energy infrastructure.
Now, as the river crest makes its way past Natchez, Miss., and on toward New Orleans and the Gulf of Mexico, only time will tell what survives the surge of water heading downstream.