In 2004, John Kerry's presidential aspirations were dashed when a key swing state unexpectedly voted for his opponent. Ohio – where potential candidates Obama and McCain remain deadlocked in the polls – may have just received the same push toward the Republican ticket that determined its vote, and the presidency, in the last election.
Pundits and party officials agree Ohio's final tally favored Bush in 2004 because the "gay" marriage issue – which was hot following a Massachusetts Supreme Court ruling legalizing same-sex unions – drove conservative voters to the polls.
Will they share the same fate? |
If the California Supreme Court's May 15 ruling permitting same-sex marriage ignites a similar controversy, the precedent of swinging the swing state may repeat itself in 2008.
On the night of Nov. 2, 2004, with Kerry 18 electoral votes shy of the presidency and Bush needing just 16, the outcome of Ohio's election, and its 20 electoral votes, would determine the next president of the United States.
Kerry had led in Gallup's pre-election polls in Ohio, he had won the vote in five of the state's six major metros (all but Cincinnati) and the presidency seemed within his grasp.
But the voters of Ohio had responded to the Massachusetts controversy by placing a constitutional amendment to protect traditional marriage on the ballot. Support for the amendment -- approved with 62 percent of the vote and passed in 87 of Ohio's 88 counties -- brought out the vote that brought Bush back to the White House.
"I'd be naive if I didn't say it helped," Robert T. Bennett, chairman of the Ohio Republican Party, told the New York Times.
John Green, a political scientist at the University of Akron who has studied religion in politics, told the Times, "If you look around rural, Appalachian Ohio, you'll see there were many counties that Bush won by better than 60 percent of the vote. Those are the areas where you'd see increased turnout because of this issue. And I think that increase was large."
The "gay" marriage issue gave Bush a boost in several demographics. The Ohio Campaign to Protect Marriage hired an independent polling firm to predict the effect of the amendment initiative on the overall vote. The firm concluded African-American support for Bush would double, undecided voters moved by the issue would swing to Bush at a 6 to 1 ratio and Bush would receive a net vote surge of 3 to 5 percentage points.
According to exit polls, Bush did indeed see increases in support among Ohio's African-Americans (up from 9 percent in 2000 to 16 percent in 2004), women (up 5 percent) and Catholics (up 5 percent). Bush's final margin of victory was 2 percentage points.
Across the nation, 11 states had marriage amendments on the ballot in 2004. All 11 amendments passed, and Bush won all but two of those states.
Democrats can ill afford to see California's "gay" marriage ruling ignite conservative voters this year the way the Massachusetts ruling did in 2004. Three more states – California, Arizona and Florida – are likely to add marriage amendments to their ballots this fall. If losing Ohio would cripple Obama's chances of winning the presidency, losing Florida and California would terminate them.
Igniting the issue, however, is dependent on John McCain's campaign strategy.
While McCain's likely opponent, Barack Obama, hasn't endorsed same-sex marriage, he did state he "respects the decision of the California Supreme Court," a position that sounds even more friendly to same-sex marriage than that of John Kerry, who in 2004 called for an amendment to overturn the Massachusetts court decision.
Conservative voters are likely to see Obama as pro-"gay" marriage. But will they see McCain as against it and give him the same support they gave Bush?
Two years ago, McCain supported an unsuccessful effort to outlaw same-sex marriage in his home state of Arizona, but he has repeatedly opposed a national amendment to define marriage as the union of one man and one woman.
Phil Burress, chairman of the Ohio Campaign to Protect Marriage, sought to discern McCain's mind on the matter. He met with McCain and 1,000 other leaders in a private, closed-door meeting in New Orleans in March. Burress told WND that he asked McCain before the whole crowd if he would "openly campaign for the marriage amendment already on the ballot in Florida and the ones likely to be on ballots in Arizona and California."
According to Burress, McCain answered an immediate and emphatic "yes."
To Burress, McCain's faithfulness to that pledge will make a big difference, not only in Ohio, but as Ohio demonstrated in 2004, in the election as a whole.
"Senator McCain needs to force this issue into the election equation," Burress said in a released statement. "He needs to make it very clear that he is opposed to same-sex marriage and back up his talk with action by supporting the marriage amendments in Florida, Arizona and California. Senator Obama (or Clinton) will try to keep endorsement of same-sex marriage low-key. They both know that history might well repeat itself."
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60% of polled Americans:
No homosexual marriage